One lesson at a time, each gated by a short check. Reviews appear here automatically as material starts to fade.
Progress is saved on this device.
01RegimeWhat environment are we in?
02StructureWhich direction has control?
03LocationWhere is price in the range?
04RiskWhat makes the idea wrong?
THE PATH · 0 OF 19 MASTERED
01 · MARKET FOUNDATIONS
02 · LIQUIDITY & LEVELS
03 · MODELS & CONFLUENCE
04 · MACRO & DERIVATIVES
05 · RISK & EXECUTION
06 · PSYCHOLOGY & PROCESS
07 · CYCLES & FUNDAMENTALS
A lesson unlocks when the one before it is passed (2 of 3 on the check). Reviews are separate — they surface on Today as material fades.
01 · MARKET FOUNDATIONS · FOUNDATION · 6 MIN
Trading is probabilities, not prediction
A trading idea is a weighted possibility, never knowledge of what the next candle must do.
THE DECK · 65 CARDS
One idea per card. Failure mode attached.
Full glossary (20 terms)
Absorption
Heavy trading at an area without continued movement, suggesting aggression is being met by resting interest.
BOS
A body-close break of structure in the direction of the established trend.
CHoCH
The first meaningful counter-trend structure break; potential change, not guaranteed reversal.
CVD
Cumulative volume delta: the running difference between aggressive buying and selling.
Equilibrium
The midpoint of a selected range, often represented by the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
Expectancy
Average result per trade: win probability × average win minus loss probability × average loss.
FVG
A three-candle imbalance where neighboring wicks do not overlap.
Funding
Periodic payment between perpetual long and short positions that helps keep the contract near spot.
HOB
A body-defined order-block concept positioned behind an imbalance.
Invalidation
The observable condition that makes a thesis wrong.
Kyukei
A deliberate cooldown after a loss or emotional escalation.
Liquidity sweep
Price trades through an obvious high or low and then rejects back through it.
Mitigation
Price revisits a previously identified zone, potentially consuming remaining orders.
Open interest
The total outstanding derivatives contracts that remain open.
OTE
A commonly watched 0.62–0.79 retracement zone in ICT-style analysis.
POC
The price with the most volume in a selected volume-profile range.
Premium / Discount
The upper and lower halves of a selected range relative to equilibrium.
R
One unit of planned account risk used to compare results consistently.
Slippage
The difference between the expected execution price and the actual fill.
VAH / VAL
The upper and lower boundaries of the volume profile’s value area.
THE EVIDENCE RECORD · ALL DATA ON THIS DEVICE
Not a grade — a mirror.
The goal is confidence that matches reality. Learn the framework; keep the doubt.
PREDICTIONS MADE0chart reads committed before the reveal
HIT RATE—matched the stronger read
AVG CONFIDENCE—commit reads to build this
CARDS IN MEMORY00 strong · 0 fading
CALIBRATION · CONFIDENCE VS OUTCOME
The curve appears after five committed reads. Every predict step and chart drill feeds it.
MEMORY BY MODULE
01 Foundations
0%
02 Liquidity
0%
03 Models
0%
04 Macro
0%
05 Risk
0%
06 Psychology
0%
07 Cycles
0%
Strong cards per module. Fading cards return to the Today queue on schedule.
OBSERVEDPrice, volume, fills
What the data records.
INTERPRETEDIntent, phases, zones
Useful readings requiring judgment.
MEASURED2,668 backtested trades
32% wins and −0.02R expectancy: no demonstrated mechanical edge.
A backtest of 2,668 trades under this playbook’s mechanical rules: 32% wins and −0.02R expectancy — no demonstrated mechanical edge. The concepts here are a language for reading markets, not a money machine. That distinction is the product.